BREAZE

There is now strong scientific evidence that climate change is directly affecting the Ballarat Region. Over the past 10 years, inflows to Ballarat’s reservoirs have been 35% less than the long term (50-100year) average. In 2006, winter inflows were just 2.1% of the long term winter norm (Central Region Sustainable Water Strategy- Ch 4).

Most reported evidence now supports that this change in rainfall and runoff is a consequence of human induced climate change. This is primarily the result of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) produced by the world’s reliance on fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas for power generation and transport. Other factors such as agriculture and deforestation are also producing significant impacts.

As a result, Victoria is expected to become warmer and drier, with more frequent and extended drought periods and more extreme storms. Along with rising temperatures, there is also likely to be a significant reduction in rainfall, river flows and the amount of water supplied by our reservoirs. (Sustainable Water Strategy 2005)

Recent modelling1 suggests it is highly likely that low inflow conditions will continue. Modelling for the Ballarat Region and reported in the Central Region Sustainable Water Strategy suggests a 7,800 megalitre supply shortfall for 2015 using projected population and usage figures under low flow conditions.

Basic climate data from weather stations in Ballarat can be accessed via the Bureau of Meteorology website (select the annual climate summaries and diagnostics option). Data for Victoria shows the State had the warmest year on record in 2007. Ballarat was one of four sites to record the highest annual mean daily temperature for at least 20 years.

Modelling of other climate indicators such as the number of frosts recorded and the number of days over 30˚C, also show significant change. It is predicted there will be 14 less frosts and 12 more days over 35˚C per year in and around Ballarat by 2070 under a high CO2 emissions scenario (Victorian Climate Change Adaption program DSE 2009)

Rainfall and runoff figures recorded over the past five years suggest actual climate change impacts may be even more severe than current modelling indicates and hence the saving targets set in current water management strategies and other climate change policy may be too low to be sustainable in the long term.

A warmer and drier climate in the Ballarat district and across Victoria has major implications for agricultural production and food security for Ballarat. It is doubtful whether Victoria can rely on externally produced food to meet any deficit due to increasing pressure on agricultural systems both nationally and globally. Coupled with rising transport costs this is likely increase the cost of food dramatically.

It should be noted however that in a warmer climate some crops previously unsuitable to the region will become suitable. This could mean potential for increased dryland cereal production. DPI and other government departments are actively investigating adaption scenarios for agriculture in the region.

Similarly, greenhouse gas reduction targets set by government have often been based on an expectation of low to mid range climate impacts. In reality, we are facing much more severe impacts than predicted already.

The observed and potential changes in climate have major implications for food and water security, community resilience and exposure to an increased level of hazard through climatically enhanced events such as bushfire and flood.

The implications are serious and BREAZE believes it is now urgent to do something in our own backyard to reduce emissions and minimise the effects of climate change and in doing so seek to attain a more sustainable lifestyle for our community.

1. CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology and reported by the Victorian Climate Change Adaptation Program (2008) www.climatechange.vic.gov.au